We apply rigorous, sophisticated analysis to understand the behaviour, needs and requirements of complex systems. We also have expertise in aerospace modelling and simulation, specialising in probabilistic risk assessment for weapons testing and space vehicle re-entry.


Shoal specialises in providing capability needs analysis in support of large, complex projects.

Our approach focuses on working closely with our clients to fully define the system needs through gaining deep insight into the problems and challenges to be resolved.

We have utilised and developed our model based capability needs analysis methods in the conceptual design of some of Australia’s largest defence projects, including Future Frigates (SEA 5000), Future Submarines (SEA 1000) and Land Combat Vehicle System (LAND 400); as well as projects in the fire and emergency services sector.

Our strength is in our holistic approach to needs analysis considering all facets of the system lifecycle, the environment in which the system operates and the people, organisations and communities that the system supports.


Our range of complex systems engineering and related capabilities includes high-fidelity aerospace modelling and simulation of guided weapons and test vehicles, including the ASRAAM air-to-air missile, AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile, FGM-148 Javelin anti-armour weapon, MU90 torpedo, high-altitude sounding rockets and space re-entry vehicles.

Shoal was contracted to provide flight safety analysis to the joint DST Group / Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) HIFiRE hypersonics research program. We also provided independent safety advice to the Australian Government in authorising the Japanese Hayabusa spacecraft return to Woomera in 2010. A visualisation of the Hayabusa nominal trajectory as predicted by Shoal is shown to the left.

We have developed our aerospace safety analysis capability since 2004 in collaboration with the Australian DST Group. This work has included significant research and development and publications of scholarly papers at a range of conferences in Australia, Europe and the United States. The capability is listed in the Australian Training and Simulation Industry Capability Directory as the Range Safety Template Toolkit (RSTT).


Shoal is a leading provider of probabilistic risks assessments for complex systems. Building on a decade of experience developing the tools and techniques to deliver Risk Hazard Analyses for aerospace systems, the company has a deep understanding of the capabilities and policies required to contribute to robust and well-informed risk management.


The Range Safety Template Toolkit (RSTT) developed by DST Group and Shoal has been successfully applied to a broad range of air and space flight risk analyses and is being adapted to help meet the needs of the commercial spaceflight community.

In meeting the regulatory requirements of the Space Activities Act 1998 and its international equivalents, organisations require rapid generation of mission-specific safety analysis which comply with common standards for range risk criteria. Shoal applies a suite of analytical tools, combined with geospatial information, such as asset locations and population densities, to provide casualty and damage estimates for operational planning and safety analysis of the mission.

This approach can support the mission elements central for commercial spaceflight missions, including:

  • Modelling of multi-stage vehicles, of which each stage can be of a different vehicle type including rockets, gliders, UAS and satellites;
  • Methodologies for identifying and modelling high-fidelity failure modes;
  • Introduction of hypersonic aerodynamics and control modelling;
  • Modelling of many classes of debris following a catastrophic failure; and
  • High-precision risk assessments near the launch area to assist with range management options.


Shoal has had considerable experience involving guided, unguided weapons and weapons integration tasks for Defence either as a contractor or with staff that have previously worked for Defence organisations such as the Aircraft Research and Development Unit (ARDU) and DST Group Weapons Combat Systems Division.

The company can draw on experience in this weapons engineering discipline from early life-cycle conceptual design pitot-probe system on Kerkanya, wind tunnel testing of weapons release and separation (Kerkanya, GBU-12, MK-82, Mk-83) off F-111C and F/A-18 aircraft, preparation of aircraft stores compatibility clearances, preparation of aircraft stores flight test plans and reports, modelling and simulation of weapons performance, provision of weapons ballistics data, and preparation of range safety templates. In undertaking these tasks Shoal staff have held Senior ASC Design Engineering delegation with scope to develop or review aircraft stores compatibility clearances, weapons loading procedures, test plans, and test reports.

For many years, Shoal has supported DST Group with development of the Range Safety Template Toolkit (RSTT) to produce range safety templates, also known as Weapon Danger Area (WDA), and associated outputs for guided air weapons, including the Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM) and the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM). We have recently been contracted to extend this capability to support the HIFiRE hypersonics research program being conducted by DST Group and the United States Air Force.



Australian Ground-Based Air and Missile Defence (GBAMD) capability study solicitation released to industry

The Australian Department of Defence issued a Worldwide solicitation to industry to inform a capability study of future Ground-Based Air and Missile Defence (GBAMD) systems and technologies. The study, conducted in support of Defence Project LAND 19 Phase 7, was managed by Shoal (then known as Aerospace Concepts).

GBAMD system suppliers, media outlets and other interested parties were invited to register interest in the capability. The study was due for completion in October 2008 with initial industry responses due by 1 September 2008. Note that the results of the study are intended for Department of Defence use only and will not be publically released. The solicitation is available for download.

Australian improved Terminal Air Control (TAC) market technology survey solicitation released to industry

The Australian Department of Defence launched a Worldwide market technology survey for Terminal Air Control (TAC) technologies and products. The survey, conducted in support of Defence’s Project LAND 146, was managed by Shoal (then known as Aerospace Concepts). The survey solicitation brief is available for download.

Australian Combat Identification market technology survey solicitation released to industry

The Australian Department of Defence launched a Worldwide market technology survey for Combat Identification technologies and products. The survey, being conducted in support of Defence’s Project LAND 146, was managed by Shoal (then known as Aerospace Concepts). The survey solicitation brief is available for download.